In this map compiled on an average of all the major American polls Obama has 264 electoral college votes while McCain has 163 (remember the magic number is 270), there are still 111 votes up for grabs in toss up states where neither candidate has a lead greater than 5% in current polls (see this link for info on which way these states are polling at the moment).
Do you think Obama is on course for an easy win or do you see some way the electoral college system could turn in favor of McCain?
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3 comments:
Having looked at the toss up states in more detail Obama is polling +4% in 3 states which would give him a further 39 votes taking him clear of the 270 mark. These polling people are being very careful after the problems with Gore/Bush in 2000 but I think the map flatters McCain. If we see the polls in Florida (27 votes)get closer McCain may have a chance but other wise barring any huge mistakes from Obama the election is his. But thats just my take on it.
Mr Shiel
The problem with poles is that they are at best an esimate of the current political feelings. Pollers suggest that the actulal result can be 4% either way which could change the result of the election. This is shown in the New York Times poll which does differ. But they no dowt do give an indecation even if the American voter is stereotypicaly flippant. The main thing I feel that shows the success of Obama is his gaining of strength traditional Repbulican staes. This is shown in the NYT 'Mr. Obama has what both sides describe as serious efforts under way in at least nine states that voted for President Bush in 2004, including some that neither side thought would be on the table this close to Election Day. In a visible sign of the breadth of Mr. Obama’s aspirations, he is using North Carolina — a state that Mr. Bush won by 13 percentage points in 2004, and where Mr. Obama is now spending heavily on advertisements — as his base to prepare this weekend for the debate on Tuesday.'
The fact that 58 of "Obama's" states are leaning, combined with the 111 toss up states, could result in a victory for McCain if he can reassert a strong republican lead in the toss up states and make in-roads into the 'leaning' Obama states. But as Fred said Obama is leading in typically Republican states, suggesting that the nessecary inroads may not be made in time for the election.
I think the leaning states and the toss up states will quickly 'align' themselves with a candidate during the next few weeks, with television debates and the like playing a prominent role in American politics. If Obama continues on his current trajectory he's likley to win.
The 'elephant in the room' (race) may become an issue when people are allowed to express their true opinions in the privacy of the ballot box - but we can hope that this dosen't happen.
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